{"topic":{"id":15641,"title":"gold watch","slug":"gold-watch","categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2026-08-11T14:24:01.699Z","bumpedAt":"2026-08-11T14:34:19.327Z","views":20,"postsCount":3,"highestPostNumber":3,"likeCount":0,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"excerpt":"https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":true,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":2191,"username":"anonymous","name":null,"avatarUrl":null},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":73044,"postNumber":1,"raw":"https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup","cooked":"","createdAt":"2026-08-11T14:24:01.699Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-11T14:24:01.699Z","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":true,"user":{"id":2191,"username":"anonymous","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false}},{"id":73045,"postNumber":2,"raw":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLZ381lQiFQ\r\n\r\n**English Transcript**\r\n\r\nGood morning. It's Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group. It's 11:00 a.m. here in New York on Tuesday, August 4th.\r\n\r\nI'll run through the market updates, but I want to talk about the price of fraud and the increased incidences of what we're seeing and what this could mean for the markets and the economy going forward.\r\n\r\nI want to start by talking about the markets, but before I do, I want to thank Monetary Metals for making these free videos available from CPM Group. CPM Group's research typically is paid for by clients, but we make these videos free, and Monetary Metals helps underwrite the costs of doing this a couple of times a week. Monetary Metals pays yields on gold from investors and then leases that gold to industrial users and others. They have done a great job in broadening the availability of gold leasing to retail investors and high-net-worth individuals. You can learn more at [monetary-metals.com/cpm](https://www.google.com/search?q=https%3A%2F%2Fmonetary-metals.com%2Fcpm).\r\n\r\nLet's start by talking about gold. CPM Group's view has been that the price would consolidate in a broad range of $3,800 to $4,800 over the summer. The price came down from around $4,800 a couple of months ago and has been bouncing around $4,000. Shortly ago, the active October COMEX contract was $4,113 an ounce. A few weeks ago, we thought the price could test $4,200 or $4,220, driven by a worsening political situation globally—especially US attacks on Iran and Iranian counterattacks on US military bases in GCC allies—along with technical support. The roll of active August contracts into October and December also supported gold above $4,000 for the last two weeks, though it didn't reach $4,200. We expect gold to trade between $3,800 and $4,150 or $4,200 through August, with prices potentially rising later in the year, as they did last year.\r\n\r\nMarket participants will be looking toward the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference from August 27th to 29th. Last year, the Fed indicated the economy was weaker than expected, leading to interest rate cuts. However, by March, the Fed noted the economy was stronger and inflation was higher than anticipated, halting rate cuts and causing gold to drop from $5,000 to $4,000 in about two days. It has traded around $4,000 since.\r\n\r\nRegarding COMEX gold delivery, the August delivery period is largely complete. About 1.5 million ounces of open interest remain. On July 30th (the first delivery day), there were 1.2 million ounces in deliveries, rising to 1.4 million in the first three days. This is in line with standard active months, compared to 7.8 million ounces last February or 3.5 million last August. The delivery process is orderly and unlikely to drive prices significantly higher.\r\n\r\nSilver is showing a similar pattern, trading around $60 ($60.08 recently). We expect it to test the $60 level, though it could briefly spike below $56 before rising in the final four months of the year as economic and political concerns accelerate. Platinum ($1,735) and palladium ($1,337) follow similar trends but face weaker outlooks due to pressure on the global auto industry, which uses them for auto catalysts.\r\n\r\nNow, regarding financial fraud, scams, and corporate scandals: these present risks to investors, broader markets, and the overall economy. A common misconception is that fraud triggers recessions. Historically, fraud exists constantly, but strong economies allow corporations to paper over evidence. When the economy weakens, these issues are exposed. Examples include the dot-com bubble (where the NASDAQ fell 77% and 50% of 1990s dot-com IPOs failed by 2004) and the 2006–2009 mortgage-backed securities crisis ($17–$22 trillion lost, 6 million home foreclosures).\r\n\r\nCurrently, we see risks in emerging, highly unregulated technologies like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. Multi-trillion-dollar valuations are being assigned to unproven or unprofitable companies. AI infrastructure is diverting massive capital, electricity, farmland, and water supplies during period of reduced water availability. Additionally, unregulated private equity and private debt continue to grow.\r\n\r\nIn precious metals markets, some storage and investment providers engage in self-auditing—having wholly-owned subsidiaries count inventory and submitting written reports to external audit firms, rather than having external auditors conduct physical counts. By contrast, proper independent audits (such as KPMG's annual audit of the US Treasury, which physically inspected and weighed representative samples from over 600,000 gold bars) involve direct verification. Furthermore, claims that the COMEX is running out of gold are inaccurate; current inventories stand around 27 million ounces, up from 17 million in 2024. Recent gold export spikes were simply arbitrage flows returning metal to London after earlier US inflows.\r\n\r\nI will be out of the office for the next three weeks attending two conferences and taking vacation. Videos will resume the week of August 24th. Our Platinum Yearbook was released at the end of July and is available online along with our Precious Metals Advisory. Take care of yourselves and those around you, do something good for the world, and I will speak with you in a few weeks.\r\n\r\n---\r\n\r\n**中文翻译 (Chinese Translation)**\r\n\r\n早上好。我是 CPM Group 的杰弗里·克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）。纽约现在是 8 月 4 日星期二上午 11 点。\r\n\r\n我将简要说明市场最新动态，但今天我想重点探讨金融欺诈的代价、我们所观察到的欺诈事件的增加，以及这对未来市场和整体经济可能意味着什么。\r\n\r\n首先谈谈市场情况。但在开始之前，我要感谢 Monetary Metals 资助并向公众免费提供 CPM Group 的这些视频。CPM Group 的研究报告通常由付费客户获取，但 Monetary Metals 的赞助使我们能够每周制作几次免费视频。Monetary Metals 门槛低，向黄金投资者支付收益，并将黄金租赁给工业用户及其他租赁需求方。他们在向散户和高净值客户推广黄金租赁业务方面做出了积极贡献。如需了解更多信息，请访问 [monetary-metals.com/cpm](https://www.google.com/search?q=https%3A%2F%2Fmonetary-metals.com%2Fcpm)。\r\n\r\n首先是黄金市场。CPM Group 此前的观点是，黄金价格将在夏季保持在 3,800 美元至 4,800 美元的宽幅区间内盘整。金价自几个月前的 4,800 美元高点回落后，近期一直在 4,000 美元附近震荡。就在不久前，COMEX 10 月黄金活跃合约的价格为每盎司 4,113 美元。几周前我们曾预测金价可能进一步走强并测试 4,200 至 4,220 美元关口，当时主要是考虑到全球政治局势恶化（特别是美国对伊朗的打击以及伊朗对美军 GCC 盟友基地的反击）以及技术面支撑。此外，8 月活跃合约向 10 月和 12 月合约的移仓换月也在过去两周内对 4,000 美元以上的金价形成了支撑，尽管未能将其推高至 4,200 美元。我们预计 8 月份金价将在 3,800 美元至 4,150 / 4,200 美元区间内交易，并可能在今年晚些时候如去年那般出现上涨。\r\n\r\n市场目前的焦点是堪萨斯城联储将于 8 月 27 日至 29 日举办的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）年度经济研讨会。去年，美联储在此次会议上暗示经济表现弱于预期，随后采取了更频繁的降息措施。然而到了 3 月，美联储改变立场，指出经济强于预期且通胀居高不下，暂停了降息计划，这导致金价在两天内从 5,000 美元快速跌至 4,000 美元，此后便一直围绕该水平震荡。\r\n\r\n关于 COMEX 黄金交割，8 月份的交割期已基本接近尾声。目前 8 月合约的未平仓合约约为 150 万盎司。在 7 月 30 日（首个交割日），交割量为 120 万盎司，前三天累计增至 140 万盎司。这与常规活跃月份的发展轨迹相符（相比之下，去年 2 月交割量为 780 万盎司，去年 8 月为 350 万盎司）。目前整体交割秩序良好，预计不会推动金价大幅突破。\r\n\r\n白银走势与黄金相似，目前在 60 美元附近交易（今日早间为 60.08 美元）。我们预计白银将继续测试 60 美元关口，8 月期间不排除下探 56 美元以下的可能，但随着最后四个季度经济和政治不确定性加剧，银价有望企稳回升。铂金（1,735 美元）和钯金（1,337 美元）走势相近，但由于全球汽车行业（铂族金属的主要消费领域，用于汽车催化剂）面临下行压力，其基本面表现将逊于黄金和白银。\r\n\r\n关于金融欺诈、诈骗与企业丑闻：这些行为不仅给投资者带来直接损失，也给更广泛的金融市场和全球经济带来系统性风险。大众普遍存在一个误区，认为欺诈是引发经济衰退的原因。然而从历史来看，欺诈行为始终存在；在经济繁荣时期，企业往往能够掩盖或掩饰这些内部问题。只有当经济增长放缓或进入衰退时，这些隐藏的风险和漏洞才会集中暴露。历史上的典型案例包括：2000-2001 年互联网泡沫破裂（纳斯达克指数从高点下跌 77%，90 年代上市的互联网公司中有 50% 在 2004 年前倒闭）以及 2006-2009 年次贷危机（投资者损失高达 17 万亿至 22 万亿美元，600 万户家庭因抵押贷款违约失去房产）。\r\n\r\n当前，加密货币和人工智能（AI）等缺乏有效监管的新兴技术领域正积聚新的风险。许多尚未实现盈利或商业模式未经验证的企业获得了高达数万亿美元的极高估值。大型数据中心的建设在水资源紧缺的背景下消耗了大量的电力、农用地和水资源，并吸纳了数千亿美元的股权和债权融资。\r\n\r\n在贵金属市场中，部分存储与投资服务商存在“自我审计”问题——即由其全资子公司进行内部库存盘点，再将书面报告提交给外部独立审计机构，而外部审计机构并未亲自进行实地盘点。真正的独立审计应如 KPMG 对美国财政部金库的审计过程：对其存放的 60 余万块金条进行抽样、实地盘点、称重和核对序列号。此外，关于“COMEX 黄金即将耗尽”的言论并不属实，目前 COMEX 黄金库存约 2,700 万盎司，显著高于 2024 年的 1,700 万盎司。近期美国黄金出口量的增加，主要是套利窗口关闭后正常跨国流动的结果。\r\n\r\n接下来三周我将休假并参加两个行业会议，期间视频更新频率可能有所调整，预计将于 8 月 24 日当周恢复正常更新。我们的《铂金年鉴》（Platinum Yearbook）已于 7 月底发布，欢迎前往官网订购及获取最新的贵金属研究报告。感谢大家的收看，祝大家生活顺遂，我们几周后见。","cooked":"\n

English Transcript

Good morning. It's Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group. It's 11:00 a.m. here in New York on Tuesday, August 4th.

I'll run through the market updates, but I want to talk about the price of fraud and the increased incidences of what we're seeing and what this could mean for the markets and the economy going forward.

I want to start by talking about the markets, but before I do, I want to thank Monetary Metals for making these free videos available from CPM Group. CPM Group's research typically is paid for by clients, but we make these videos free, and Monetary Metals helps underwrite the costs of doing this a couple of times a week. Monetary Metals pays yields on gold from investors and then leases that gold to industrial users and others. They have done a great job in broadening the availability of gold leasing to retail investors and high-net-worth individuals. You can learn more at monetary-metals.com/cpm.

Let's start by talking about gold. CPM Group's view has been that the price would consolidate in a broad range of $3,800 to $4,800 over the summer. The price came down from around $4,800 a couple of months ago and has been bouncing around $4,000. Shortly ago, the active October COMEX contract was $4,113 an ounce. A few weeks ago, we thought the price could test $4,200 or $4,220, driven by a worsening political situation globally—especially US attacks on Iran and Iranian counterattacks on US military bases in GCC allies—along with technical support. The roll of active August contracts into October and December also supported gold above $4,000 for the last two weeks, though it didn't reach $4,200. We expect gold to trade between $3,800 and $4,150 or $4,200 through August, with prices potentially rising later in the year, as they did last year.

Market participants will be looking toward the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference from August 27th to 29th. Last year, the Fed indicated the economy was weaker than expected, leading to interest rate cuts. However, by March, the Fed noted the economy was stronger and inflation was higher than anticipated, halting rate cuts and causing gold to drop from $5,000 to $4,000 in about two days. It has traded around $4,000 since.

Regarding COMEX gold delivery, the August delivery period is largely complete. About 1.5 million ounces of open interest remain. On July 30th (the first delivery day), there were 1.2 million ounces in deliveries, rising to 1.4 million in the first three days. This is in line with standard active months, compared to 7.8 million ounces last February or 3.5 million last August. The delivery process is orderly and unlikely to drive prices significantly higher.

Silver is showing a similar pattern, trading around $60 ($60.08 recently). We expect it to test the $60 level, though it could briefly spike below $56 before rising in the final four months of the year as economic and political concerns accelerate. Platinum ($1,735) and palladium ($1,337) follow similar trends but face weaker outlooks due to pressure on the global auto industry, which uses them for auto catalysts.

Now, regarding financial fraud, scams, and corporate scandals: these present risks to investors, broader markets, and the overall economy. A common misconception is that fraud triggers recessions. Historically, fraud exists constantly, but strong economies allow corporations to paper over evidence. When the economy weakens, these issues are exposed. Examples include the dot-com bubble (where the NASDAQ fell 77% and 50% of 1990s dot-com IPOs failed by 2004) and the 2006–2009 mortgage-backed securities crisis ($17–$22 trillion lost, 6 million home foreclosures).

Currently, we see risks in emerging, highly unregulated technologies like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. Multi-trillion-dollar valuations are being assigned to unproven or unprofitable companies. AI infrastructure is diverting massive capital, electricity, farmland, and water supplies during period of reduced water availability. Additionally, unregulated private equity and private debt continue to grow.

In precious metals markets, some storage and investment providers engage in self-auditing—having wholly-owned subsidiaries count inventory and submitting written reports to external audit firms, rather than having external auditors conduct physical counts. By contrast, proper independent audits (such as KPMG's annual audit of the US Treasury, which physically inspected and weighed representative samples from over 600,000 gold bars) involve direct verification. Furthermore, claims that the COMEX is running out of gold are inaccurate; current inventories stand around 27 million ounces, up from 17 million in 2024. Recent gold export spikes were simply arbitrage flows returning metal to London after earlier US inflows.

I will be out of the office for the next three weeks attending two conferences and taking vacation. Videos will resume the week of August 24th. Our Platinum Yearbook was released at the end of July and is available online along with our Precious Metals Advisory. Take care of yourselves and those around you, do something good for the world, and I will speak with you in a few weeks.

中文翻译 (Chinese Translation)

早上好。我是 CPM Group 的杰弗里·克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）。纽约现在是 8 月 4 日星期二上午 11 点。

我将简要说明市场最新动态，但今天我想重点探讨金融欺诈的代价、我们所观察到的欺诈事件的增加，以及这对未来市场和整体经济可能意味着什么。

首先谈谈市场情况。但在开始之前，我要感谢 Monetary Metals 资助并向公众免费提供 CPM Group 的这些视频。CPM Group 的研究报告通常由付费客户获取，但 Monetary Metals 的赞助使我们能够每周制作几次免费视频。Monetary Metals 门槛低，向黄金投资者支付收益，并将黄金租赁给工业用户及其他租赁需求方。他们在向散户和高净值客户推广黄金租赁业务方面做出了积极贡献。如需了解更多信息，请访问 monetary-metals.com/cpm。

首先是黄金市场。CPM Group 此前的观点是，黄金价格将在夏季保持在 3,800 美元至 4,800 美元的宽幅区间内盘整。金价自几个月前的 4,800 美元高点回落后，近期一直在 4,000 美元附近震荡。就在不久前，COMEX 10 月黄金活跃合约的价格为每盎司 4,113 美元。几周前我们曾预测金价可能进一步走强并测试 4,200 至 4,220 美元关口，当时主要是考虑到全球政治局势恶化（特别是美国对伊朗的打击以及伊朗对美军 GCC 盟友基地的反击）以及技术面支撑。此外，8 月活跃合约向 10 月和 12 月合约的移仓换月也在过去两周内对 4,000 美元以上的金价形成了支撑，尽管未能将其推高至 4,200 美元。我们预计 8 月份金价将在 3,800 美元至 4,150 / 4,200 美元区间内交易，并可能在今年晚些时候如去年那般出现上涨。

市场目前的焦点是堪萨斯城联储将于 8 月 27 日至 29 日举办的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）年度经济研讨会。去年，美联储在此次会议上暗示经济表现弱于预期，随后采取了更频繁的降息措施。然而到了 3 月，美联储改变立场，指出经济强于预期且通胀居高不下，暂停了降息计划，这导致金价在两天内从 5,000 美元快速跌至 4,000 美元，此后便一直围绕该水平震荡。

关于 COMEX 黄金交割，8 月份的交割期已基本接近尾声。目前 8 月合约的未平仓合约约为 150 万盎司。在 7 月 30 日（首个交割日），交割量为 120 万盎司，前三天累计增至 140 万盎司。这与常规活跃月份的发展轨迹相符（相比之下，去年 2 月交割量为 780 万盎司，去年 8 月为 350 万盎司）。目前整体交割秩序良好，预计不会推动金价大幅突破。

白银走势与黄金相似，目前在 60 美元附近交易（今日早间为 60.08 美元）。我们预计白银将继续测试 60 美元关口，8 月期间不排除下探 56 美元以下的可能，但随着最后四个季度经济和政治不确定性加剧，银价有望企稳回升。铂金（1,735 美元）和钯金（1,337 美元）走势相近，但由于全球汽车行业（铂族金属的主要消费领域，用于汽车催化剂）面临下行压力，其基本面表现将逊于黄金和白银。

关于金融欺诈、诈骗与企业丑闻：这些行为不仅给投资者带来直接损失，也给更广泛的金融市场和全球经济带来系统性风险。大众普遍存在一个误区，认为欺诈是引发经济衰退的原因。然而从历史来看，欺诈行为始终存在；在经济繁荣时期，企业往往能够掩盖或掩饰这些内部问题。只有当经济增长放缓或进入衰退时，这些隐藏的风险和漏洞才会集中暴露。历史上的典型案例包括：2000-2001 年互联网泡沫破裂（纳斯达克指数从高点下跌 77%，90 年代上市的互联网公司中有 50% 在 2004 年前倒闭）以及 2006-2009 年次贷危机（投资者损失高达 17 万亿至 22 万亿美元，600 万户家庭因抵押贷款违约失去房产）。

当前，加密货币和人工智能（AI）等缺乏有效监管的新兴技术领域正积聚新的风险。许多尚未实现盈利或商业模式未经验证的企业获得了高达数万亿美元的极高估值。大型数据中心的建设在水资源紧缺的背景下消耗了大量的电力、农用地和水资源，并吸纳了数千亿美元的股权和债权融资。

在贵金属市场中，部分存储与投资服务商存在“自我审计”问题——即由其全资子公司进行内部库存盘点，再将书面报告提交给外部独立审计机构，而外部审计机构并未亲自进行实地盘点。真正的独立审计应如 KPMG 对美国财政部金库的审计过程：对其存放的 60 余万块金条进行抽样、实地盘点、称重和核对序列号。此外，关于“COMEX 黄金即将耗尽”的言论并不属实，目前 COMEX 黄金库存约 2,700 万盎司，显著高于 2024 年的 1,700 万盎司。近期美国黄金出口量的增加，主要是套利窗口关闭后正常跨国流动的结果。

接下来三周我将休假并参加两个行业会议，期间视频更新频率可能有所调整，预计将于 8 月 24 日当周恢复正常更新。我们的《铂金年鉴》（Platinum Yearbook）已于 7 月底发布，欢迎前往官网订购及获取最新的贵金属研究报告。感谢大家的收看，祝大家生活顺遂，我们几周后见。

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CCTV分析了跟没分析一样 $\":a_grinning_face_with_sweat:\"$

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