{"topic":{"id":15604,"title":"[2026-2027] 蒸汽/波 | El Niño 气象观察","slug":"2026-2027-el-nino","categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2026-06-22 17:22:08.108525","bumpedAt":"2026-08-11T02:54:44.855Z","views":747,"postsCount":8,"highestPostNumber":8,"likeCount":2,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"excerpt":"延续去年的天气帖【2025 年春夏】气象实况追踪帖（土塬分帖）, 本贴讨论和记录此次极端 El Niño 事件从发展到消亡全过程的气象报告, 以及身边的天气事件和过程. 以下转自知乎答主 @等风的想法: 针对今年年底的厄尔尼诺事件，目前大多数预报模式都给出了其远远超出了现代观测史上所有厄尔尼诺事件的强度，这可能是一次改写历史记录的事件，其潜在的能量释放和气候影响力可能是史无前例的。人类有系统观测ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）现象以来，…","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif"},"tags":["气象"]},"posts":[{"id":72401,"postNumber":1,"raw":"延续去年的天气帖[【2025 年春夏】气象实况追踪帖（土塬分帖）](https://xjtu.app/t/topic/14454), 本贴讨论和记录此次极端 El Niño 事件从发展到消亡全过程的气象报告, 以及身边的天气事件和过程.\n\n以下转自知乎答主 [@等风](https://www.zhihu.com/people/kobe-3-59) 的[想法](https://www.zhihu.com/pin/2046609169013290635):\n> 针对今年年底的厄尔尼诺事件，目前大多数预报模式都给出了其远远超出了现代观测史上所有厄尔尼诺事件的强度，这可能是一次改写历史记录的事件，其潜在的能量释放和气候影响力可能是史无前例的。人类有系统观测ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）现象以来，从未记录过Niño3.4指数达到+3°C以上的事件，然而预测模型居然能有一些成员报出+4℃以上的极端情况，本次厄尔尼诺事件如果按照预期发展，将使得我们进入一个完全没有历史先例可循的未知气候领域，其极端性可能超出所有现有认知。如此强度的暖水集中在热带太平洋，甚至有机会重构全球大气环流，导致沃克环流、哈德利环流等发生剧烈变化，引爆的匪夷所思的全球天气，颤抖吧人类。\n\n*中立混乱之 \nENSO循环也是一种蒸汽波*","cooked":"

延续去年的天气帖【2025 年春夏】气象实况追踪帖（土塬分帖）, 本贴讨论和记录此次极端 El Niño 事件从发展到消亡全过程的气象报告, 以及身边的天气事件和过程.

以下转自知乎答主 @等风的想法:

\n
针对今年年底的厄尔尼诺事件，目前大多数预报模式都给出了其远远超出了现代观测史上所有厄尔尼诺事件的强度，这可能是一次改写历史记录的事件，其潜在的能量释放和气候影响力可能是史无前例的。人类有系统观测ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）现象以来，从未记录过Niño3.4指数达到+3°C以上的事件，然而预测模型居然能有一些成员报出+4℃以上的极端情况，本次厄尔尼诺事件如果按照预期发展，将使得我们进入一个完全没有历史先例可循的未知气候领域，其极端性可能超出所有现有认知。如此强度的暖水集中在热带太平洋，甚至有机会重构全球大气环流，导致沃克环流、哈德利环流等发生剧烈变化，引爆的匪夷所思的全球天气，颤抖吧人类。
\n

中立混乱之
\nENSO循环也是一种蒸汽波

\n","createdAt":"2026-06-22 17:22:08.368209","updatedAt":"2026-06-22 18:46:15.286007","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":4,"wordCount":387,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":4,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"},{"id":8156,"username":"setsuna","name":"做回自己世莉架"},{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":3,"publicVersion":3,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"

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\nCrystal Clear

"}},{"id":72402,"postNumber":2,"raw":"最新数据: \n\n对于2026年冬季的极端厄尔尼诺事件, CFSv2几乎所有成员模型预测的极端值都已经高度集中在+3.8K上下. ![NOAA Nino3.4 SST anomolies](/uploads/image/a9/6b/a96bd3b4bdf48b83e3e329c2c50fb57b76aeba684220e1bd5a82112d30b42f16.avif)\n\nECWMF 给出的预测同样非常极端. \n![image|603x499](/uploads/image/8d/df/8ddf364edab9f0702f082c07dc5da1fb30ea3fa3b788e2b2143a4537bd7d1bce.avif)\n\n作为对比, 有气象记录以来, 该指数的历史极值是2015年11月的+2.6K. 次年(2016), 我国即有诸多极端气象事件发生, 包括全国年降水量达历史最多(均值+16%), 暴雨日数历史最多(均值+39%), 夏季气温历史最高等.","cooked":"

最新数据:

对于2026年冬季的极端厄尔尼诺事件, CFSv2几乎所有成员模型预测的极端值都已经高度集中在+3.8K上下. $\"NOAA$

ECWMF 给出的预测同样非常极端.
\n $\"image|603x499\"$

作为对比, 有气象记录以来, 该指数的历史极值是2015年11月的+2.6K. 次年(2016), 我国即有诸多极端气象事件发生, 包括全国年降水量达历史最多(均值+16%), 暴雨日数历史最多(均值+39%), 夏季气温历史最高等.

\n","createdAt":"2026-06-22 17:31:24.088508","updatedAt":"2026-06-22 18:04:20.836333","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":151,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"},{"id":8156,"username":"setsuna","name":"做回自己世莉架"},{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":4,"publicVersion":4,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"

\nCrystal Clear

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\nCrystal Clear

"}},{"id":72542,"postNumber":3,"raw":"西安这一周以来天天35°C+，即使中间有个晚上下了暴雨\r\n没带伞的我在实验室被堵到4点钟\r\n\r\n今天早上起来看到是高温红色预警，下午又来了暴雨大风黄色预警:magic_wand_innocent:\r\n\r\n东南沿海最近都在讨论台风\r\n不知道门友所在地的天气如何？\r\n\r\n西安市区依旧高于往年均值6°C左右\r\n![西安市区依旧高于平均值6°C左右](/uploads/image/bf/5d/bf5dac5dc31f83e0d27e9985dbbf3a4e58630b052e641ac255264ecbd2f03839.avif)","cooked":"

西安这一周以来天天35°C+，即使中间有个晚上下了暴雨
\n没带伞的我在实验室被堵到4点钟

今天早上起来看到是高温红色预警，下午又来了暴雨大风黄色预警 $\":magic_wand_innocent:\"$

东南沿海最近都在讨论台风
\n不知道门友所在地的天气如何？

西安市区依旧高于往年均值6°C左右
\n $\"西安市区依旧高于平均值6°C左右\"$

\n","createdAt":"2026-07-10T11:02:41.575Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-10T11:04:52.636Z","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":5,"wordCount":124,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":5,"users":[{"id":2872,"username":"芙蓉湖第一树莓果","name":"RaspberryPi"},{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"},{"id":8040,"username":"dvm","name":"Dvm"},{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"

\nCrystal Clear

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\nCrystal Clear

"}},{"id":72548,"postNumber":4,"raw":"xm懂气候我完全是地理盲气候盲（）\r\n台风要来浙江了不过我最近在辽宁旅游希望不会导致这边下大雨（）","cooked":"

xm懂气候我完全是地理盲气候盲（）
\n台风要来浙江了不过我最近在辽宁旅游希望不会导致这边下大雨（）

\n","createdAt":"2026-07-10T13:48:06.521Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-10T13:48:06.521Z","replyToPostNumber":3,"replyCount":2,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":44,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹"},{"id":8040,"username":"dvm","name":"Dvm"},{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/c7/ea/c7eae3a3f314dbf53f43c93673d771a3c5bd80a8a7151db2a24c2379c567397a.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"[color=#bbcff9]长恨此身非我有何时忘却营营[/color]","signatureCooked":"

长恨此身非我有何时忘却营营

\n"}},{"id":72685,"postNumber":5,"raw":"[quote=\"青年杰出贡献上交大門人, post:4, topic:15604\"]\r\nxm懂气候我完全是地理盲气候盲（）\r\n[/quote]\r\n➕️1","cooked":"

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t青年杰出贡献上交大門人:\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n
xm懂气候我完全是地理盲气候盲（）
\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n➕️1","createdAt":"2026-07-22T13:31:42.877Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-22T13:31:50.283Z","replyToPostNumber":4,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":32,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/92/bd/92bd1ff215ea8990dcf53b0e029bbd6082214bc14ad33d5fa0d4ea9a8e3d6671.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"成为更好的人","signatureCooked":"

成为更好的人

\n"}},{"id":72686,"postNumber":6,"raw":"cy:cat_mouse:","cooked":"

cy $\":cat_mouse:\"$

\n","createdAt":"2026-07-22T13:32:17.902Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-22T13:32:17.902Z","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":8200,"username":"tck","name":"我有魔芋爽","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/92/bd/92bd1ff215ea8990dcf53b0e029bbd6082214bc14ad33d5fa0d4ea9a8e3d6671.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"成为更好的人","signatureCooked":"

成为更好的人

\n"}},{"id":73021,"postNumber":7,"raw":"并非懂气候，实乃业余小爱好😁\r\n\r\n---\r\n\r\n受台风白海豚影响，上海徐家汇站24小时内测得316mm雨量，打破当地气象观测记录。\r\n\r\n不知道门友的上海交大有没有变成海上交大？\r\n\r\n![1786375114698.png|491x500](/uploads/image/54/88/548881de2506bd73ab09edd52d8a3c4c2969fccc02ef1c2778576b0188802c42.avif)","cooked":"

并非懂气候，实乃业余小爱好😁

受台风白海豚影响，上海徐家汇站24小时内测得316mm雨量，打破当地气象观测记录。

不知道门友的上海交大有没有变成海上交大？

$\"1786375114698.png\"$

\n","createdAt":"2026-08-10T15:25:31.270Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-10T15:25:47.320Z","replyToPostNumber":4,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":72,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"😮","count":1,"users":[{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"🌊","count":1,"users":[{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"🏄‍♂️","count":1,"users":[{"id":8040,"username":"dvm","name":"Dvm"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"

\nCrystal Clear

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\nCrystal Clear

"}},{"id":73029,"postNumber":8,"raw":"浙江之前确实有暴雨（）\r\n现在台风似乎已经远离了","cooked":"

浙江之前确实有暴雨（）
\n现在台风似乎已经远离了

\n","createdAt":"2026-08-11T02:54:44.855Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-11T02:54:44.855Z","replyToPostNumber":7,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":21,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/c7/ea/c7eae3a3f314dbf53f43c93673d771a3c5bd80a8a7151db2a24c2379c567397a.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"[color=#bbcff9]长恨此身非我有何时忘却营营[/color]","signatureCooked":"

长恨此身非我有何时忘却营营

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